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Real Monterotondo vs Terracina Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
11/3/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Monterotondo53%
×Draw23%
Terracina Calcio24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monterotondo
1.86
Terracina Calcio
1.19

Real Monterotondo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Monterotondo
1.54
Terracina Calcio
0.88

allows per match

Real Monterotondo
1.50
Terracina Calcio
2.18

finishing

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par
Terracina Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monterotondo ↓

Terracina Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real Monterotondo or draw
76%
Real Monterotondo or Terracina Calcio
77%
Draw or Terracina Calcio
47%

Winning margin

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
30%
Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
84%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
55%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
28%
Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
70%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
33%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
68%
Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monterotondo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Terracina Calcio away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monterotondo attack 1.54 + Terracina Calcio defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.86

Terracina Calcio attack 0.88 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Monterotondo scores more
53%
level
23%
Terracina Calcio scores more
24%

Real Monterotondo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Monterotondo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Real Monterotondo 4–0 Terracina Calcio

Real Monterotondo beat Terracina Calcio 4-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli in Monterotondo.