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Real Monterotondo vs Sarnese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sarnese
Sarnese
Dani Munoz 56'
11/17/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio Fausto Cecconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Monterotondo32%
×Draw26%
Sarnese42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monterotondo
1.24
Sarnese
1.46

Sarnese creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Monterotondo
1.54
Sarnese
1.41

allows per match

Real Monterotondo
1.50
Sarnese
0.94

finishing

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par
Sarnese+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monterotondo ↓

Sarnese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Monterotondo or draw
58%
Real Monterotondo or Sarnese
74%
Draw or Sarnese
68%

Winning margin

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
14%
Sarnese wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
71%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
35%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
13%
Sarnese 1+ goals
77%
Sarnese 2+ goals
43%
Sarnese 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
43%
Sarnese (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monterotondo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Sarnese away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monterotondo attack 1.54 + Sarnese defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sarnese attack 1.41 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Monterotondo scores more
32%
level
26%
Sarnese scores more
42%

Sarnese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sarnese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
Dani Munoz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Real Monterotondo 0–1 Sarnese

Sarnese beat Real Monterotondo 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 17, 2024.

Goals: Dani Munoz (56').

The match was played at Stadio Fausto Cecconi in Monterotondo.