Real Monterotondo 0–2 Pomezia: Result & Stats

Real Monterotondo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pomezia

2/5/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 22Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Monterotondo42%

×Draw26%

Pomezia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MonterotondoExpected goals in this matchPomezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.22

Real Monterotondo

1.45

Pomezia

1.22

Real Monterotondo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.54

creates per match

0.94

1.50

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Real Monterotondo

1.54

Pomezia

0.94

allows per match

Real Monterotondo

1.50

Pomezia

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Pomezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monterotondo ↓

Pomezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Monterotondo or draw

68%

Real Monterotondo or Pomezia

74%

Draw or Pomezia

58%

Winning margin

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+

20%

Pomezia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals

77%

Real Monterotondo 2+ goals

42%

Real Monterotondo 3+ goals

18%

Pomezia 1+ goals

70%

Pomezia 2+ goals

34%

Pomezia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)

57%

Pomezia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monterotondo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Pomezia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monterotondo attack 1.54 + Pomezia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Pomezia attack 0.94 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Monterotondo scores more

42%

level

26%

Pomezia scores more

32%

Real Monterotondo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Monterotondo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff