Real Monterotondo 2–1 Ostia Mare: Result & Stats

Real Monterotondo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ostia Mare

S. Carosi 31'

D. Mattei 7'

F. Marcheggiani 43'

2/12/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 20Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Real Monterotondo33%

×Draw25%

Ostia Mare42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MonterotondoExpected goals in this matchOstia Mare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.55

Real Monterotondo

1.34

Ostia Mare

1.55

Ostia Mare creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 48 away

1.54

creates per match

1.60

1.50

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Real Monterotondo

1.54

Ostia Mare

1.60

allows per match

Real Monterotondo

1.50

Ostia Mare

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monterotondo ↓

Ostia Mare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Monterotondo or draw

58%

Real Monterotondo or Ostia Mare

75%

Draw or Ostia Mare

67%

Winning margin

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+

15%

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals

74%

Real Monterotondo 2+ goals

39%

Real Monterotondo 3+ goals

15%

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

79%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

46%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)

44%

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monterotondo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monterotondo attack 1.54 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Monterotondo scores more

33%

level

25%

Ostia Mare scores more

42%

Ostia Mare at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. Mattei

31'

S. Carosi

43'

F. Marcheggiani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff