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Real Monterotondo vs Lupa Roma — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lupa Roma
Lupa Roma
1/14/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 19Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Monterotondo38%
×Draw28%
Lupa Roma34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monterotondo
1.24
Lupa Roma
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Monterotondo
1.54
Lupa Roma
0.82

allows per match

Real Monterotondo
1.50
Lupa Roma
0.94

finishing

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par
Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monterotondo ↓

Lupa Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Monterotondo or draw
66%
Real Monterotondo or Lupa Roma
72%
Draw or Lupa Roma
62%

Winning margin

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
17%
Lupa Roma wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
71%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
35%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
13%
Lupa Roma 1+ goals
69%
Lupa Roma 2+ goals
32%
Lupa Roma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
53%
Lupa Roma (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monterotondo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Lupa Roma away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monterotondo attack 1.54 + Lupa Roma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.24

Lupa Roma attack 0.82 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Monterotondo scores more
38%
level
28%
Lupa Roma scores more
34%

Real Monterotondo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Monterotondo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Monterotondo vs Lupa Roma

Real Monterotondo and Lupa Roma drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli in Monterotondo.