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Real Monterotondo vs Insieme Formia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
FT
2 – 0
Insieme Formia
Insieme Formia
12/5/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Monterotondo50%
×Draw23%
Insieme Formia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monterotondo
1.80
Insieme Formia
1.28

Real Monterotondo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Monterotondo
1.54
Insieme Formia
1.06

allows per match

Real Monterotondo
1.50
Insieme Formia
2.06

finishing

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par
Insieme Formia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monterotondo ↓

Insieme Formia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Real Monterotondo or draw
73%
Real Monterotondo or Insieme Formia
77%
Draw or Insieme Formia
50%

Winning margin

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
27%
Insieme Formia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
83%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
54%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
27%
Insieme Formia 1+ goals
72%
Insieme Formia 2+ goals
37%
Insieme Formia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
64%
Insieme Formia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monterotondo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Insieme Formia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monterotondo attack 1.54 + Insieme Formia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Insieme Formia attack 1.06 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Monterotondo scores more
50%
level
23%
Insieme Formia scores more
27%

Real Monterotondo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Monterotondo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Real Monterotondo 2–0 Insieme Formia

Real Monterotondo beat Insieme Formia 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli in Monterotondo.