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Real Monarchs vs Vancouver Whitecaps II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
9/2/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 34Zions Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Real Monarchs49%
×Draw22%
Vancouver Whitecaps II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monarchs
2.00
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.51

Real Monarchs creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 48 away

creates per match

Real Monarchs
1.72
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.44

allows per match

Real Monarchs
1.58
Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.27

finishing

Real Monarchs+0.00on par
Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monarchs ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Real Monarchs or draw
71%
Real Monarchs or Vancouver Whitecaps II
78%
Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps II
51%

Winning margin

Real Monarchs wins by 2+
28%
Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Monarchs 1+ goals
86%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
59%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
32%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
78%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
44%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
63%
Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monarchs attack 1.72 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.00

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + Real Monarchs defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Monarchs scores more
49%
level
22%
Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
29%

Real Monarchs at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Monarchs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Real Monarchs 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps II

Real Monarchs beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 1-0 in MLS Next Pro on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium in Herriman, Utah.