Real Monarchs 5–3 Rio Grande Valley: Result & Stats

Real Monarchs

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Rio Grande Valley

6/9/2019

USL Championship · Round 25Zions Bank Stadium (Herriman, Utah)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Real Monarchs48%

×Draw24%

Rio Grande Valley28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MonarchsExpected goals in this matchRio Grande Valley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.29

Real Monarchs

1.75

Rio Grande Valley

1.29

Real Monarchs creates 36% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 93 away

1.83

creates per match

1.25

1.32

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Real Monarchs

1.83

Rio Grande Valley

1.25

allows per match

Real Monarchs

1.32

Rio Grande Valley

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monarchs ↓

Rio Grande Valley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Real Monarchs or draw

72%

Real Monarchs or Rio Grande Valley

76%

Draw or Rio Grande Valley

52%

Winning margin

Real Monarchs wins by 2+

26%

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Monarchs 1+ goals

83%

Real Monarchs 2+ goals

52%

Real Monarchs 3+ goals

25%

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

72%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

37%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)

63%

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.32 · 63 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monarchs attack 1.83 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Real Monarchs defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Monarchs scores more

48%

level

24%

Rio Grande Valley scores more

28%

Real Monarchs at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Monarchs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff