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Real Monarchs vs Portland Timbers II — MLS Next Pro 2026

Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
3/16/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 1Zions Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Real Monarchs54%
×Draw21%
Portland Timbers II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monarchs
2.08
Portland Timbers II
1.33

Real Monarchs creates 56% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 52 away

creates per match

Real Monarchs
1.72
Portland Timbers II
1.08

allows per match

Real Monarchs
1.58
Portland Timbers II
2.44

finishing

Real Monarchs+0.00on par
Portland Timbers II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monarchs ↓

Portland Timbers II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Real Monarchs or draw
76%
Real Monarchs or Portland Timbers II
79%
Draw or Portland Timbers II
46%

Winning margin

Real Monarchs wins by 2+
32%
Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Monarchs 1+ goals
87%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
61%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
34%
Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
74%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
38%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
69%
Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Portland Timbers II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monarchs attack 1.72 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.08

Portland Timbers II attack 1.08 + Real Monarchs defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Monarchs scores more
54%
level
21%
Portland Timbers II scores more
24%

Real Monarchs at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Monarchs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Real Monarchs 0–0 Portland Timbers II

Real Monarchs and Portland Timbers II drew 0-0 in MLS Next Pro on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium in Herriman, Utah.