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Portland Timbers II vs Real Monarchs — MLS Next Pro 2026

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
8/4/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 28Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Portland Timbers II50%
×Draw22%
Real Monarchs29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
2.03
Real Monarchs
1.50

Portland Timbers II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 49 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.92
Real Monarchs
1.16

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
1.85
Real Monarchs
2.14

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Real Monarchs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
71%
Portland Timbers II or Real Monarchs
78%
Draw or Real Monarchs
50%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
29%
Real Monarchs wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
87%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
60%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
33%
Real Monarchs 1+ goals
78%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
44%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
63%
Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.14 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.92 + Real Monarchs defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.03

Real Monarchs attack 1.16 + Portland Timbers II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
50%
level
22%
Real Monarchs scores more
29%

Portland Timbers II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Portland Timbers II 1–2 Real Monarchs

Real Monarchs beat Portland Timbers II 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on August 4, 2025.

The match was played at Providence Park.