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Real Madrid W vs Villarreal W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villarreal W
Villarreal W
4/23/2023Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 26Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Real Madrid W61%
×Draw21%
Villarreal W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid W
1.96
Villarreal W
0.92

Real Madrid W creates 113% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 45 away

creates per match

Real Madrid W
2.29
Villarreal W
0.93

allows per match

Real Madrid W
0.90
Villarreal W
1.64

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par
Villarreal W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Villarreal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw
83%
Real Madrid W or Villarreal W
79%
Draw or Villarreal W
39%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+
37%
Villarreal W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals
86%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
58%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
31%
Villarreal W 1+ goals
60%
Villarreal W 2+ goals
23%
Villarreal W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
78%
Villarreal W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Villarreal W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Villarreal W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.96

Villarreal W attack 0.93 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Madrid W scores more
61%
level
21%
Villarreal W scores more
17%

Real Madrid W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid W vs Villarreal W

Real Madrid W beat Villarreal W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.