Real Madrid W 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg W: Result & Stats

Real Madrid W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

VfL Wolfsburg W

L. Caicedo 67'

M. Mendez 19'

12/9/2025

UEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 5Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Real Madrid W48%

×Draw21%

VfL Wolfsburg W31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid WExpected goals in this matchVfL Wolfsburg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.65

Real Madrid W

2.07

VfL Wolfsburg W

1.65

Real Madrid W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

2.44

creates per match

2.25

1.04

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Real Madrid W

2.44

VfL Wolfsburg W

2.25

allows per match

Real Madrid W

1.04

VfL Wolfsburg W

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

VfL Wolfsburg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

VfL Wolfsburg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw

69%

Real Madrid W or VfL Wolfsburg W

79%

Draw or VfL Wolfsburg W

52%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

27%

VfL Wolfsburg W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

87%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

61%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

34%

VfL Wolfsburg W 1+ goals

81%

VfL Wolfsburg W 2+ goals

49%

VfL Wolfsburg W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

60%

VfL Wolfsburg W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

VfL Wolfsburg W away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.44 + VfL Wolfsburg W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.07

VfL Wolfsburg W attack 2.25 + Real Madrid W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Madrid W scores more

48%

level

21%

VfL Wolfsburg W scores more

31%

Real Madrid W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Misa

Real Madrid W · G

9.9

Match Events

19'

M. Mendez↳ E. Navarro

32'

40'

45+1'

45+1'

46'

R. Galvez Luna← A. Redondo

56'

Caitlin Dijkstra

61'

T. Bjelde← E. Peddemors

61'

L. Lattwein← S. Linder

67'

L. Caicedo↳ C. Weir

73'

G. Bergsvand← C. Dijkstra

73'

C. Zicai← K. Bussy

79'

A. del Castillo← N. Feller

79'

I. Santiago← L. Caicedo

84'

J. Kielland← J. Minge

87'

S. Garcia← C. Weir

90+3'

Iris Santiago

90+2'

Iris SantiagoCard upgrade

90+9'

S. Cristobal← E. Navarro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealVfL

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots19

6Corners5

11Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots19

4On Target6

1Off Target7

3Blocked6

6Inside Box14

2Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

241Total Passes418

170Accurate Passes352

71%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

2Red Cards0

0Offsides3