Real Madrid W 3–1 Sporting CP W: Result & Stats

Real Madrid W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting CP W

Alba Redondo 90+4'

S. Toletti 51', 7'

Ana Capeta 5'

9/26/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundEstadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Real Madrid W45%

×Draw24%

Sporting CP W31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid WExpected goals in this matchSporting CP W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.40

Real Madrid W

1.72

Sporting CP W

1.40

Real Madrid W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 4 away

2.44

creates per match

1.75

1.04

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Real Madrid W

2.44

Sporting CP W

1.75

allows per match

Real Madrid W

1.04

Sporting CP W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Sporting CP W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Sporting CP W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw

69%

Real Madrid W or Sporting CP W

76%

Draw or Sporting CP W

55%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

24%

Sporting CP W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

82%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

51%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

25%

Sporting CP W 1+ goals

75%

Sporting CP W 2+ goals

41%

Sporting CP W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

59%

Sporting CP W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Sporting CP W away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.44 + Sporting CP W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sporting CP W attack 1.75 + Real Madrid W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Madrid W scores more

45%

level

24%

Sporting CP W scores more

31%

Real Madrid W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Ana Capeta↳ Andreia Bravo

7'

S. Toletti↳ C. Weir

29'

O. Hernandez

33'

A. Borges

46'

Sheila García← Oihane Hernández

51'

S. Toletti↳ C. Weir

56'

Eva Navarro← N. Feller

59'

Telma Encarnação← B. Raphino

68'

J. Galabadaarachchi

69'

Brenda Pérez← Andreia Bravo

78'

F. Angeldahl← C. Weir

78'

Alba Redondo← S. Bruun

79'

Leonete Correia← J. Galabadaarachchi

79'

Diana Silva← Ana Capeta

87'

Teresa Abelleira← S. Toletti

90+4'

Alba Redondo↳ Teresa Abelleira

Real

Sporting

1

6

77

17

13

21

9

10

⚽

▼

Capeta

28

▼

Galabadaa

39

A

▼

Bravo

18

▼

Raphino

1

Misa

23

Lakrar

2

▼

7

14

24

6

⚽2

▼

Toletti

10

A

▼

Weir

9

▼

Bruun

20

▼

Feller

22

Castillo

Manager: Alberto Toril

46'▲Sheila García←▼Oihane Hernández

56'▲Eva Navarro←▼N. Feller

78'▲F. Angeldahl←▼C. Weir

78'▲Alba Redondo←▼S. Bruun

87'▲Teresa Abelleira←▼S. Toletti

Real Madrid W substitutes

15García19Navarro21Angeldahl11Redondo3Abelleira18Caicedo17Camacho33Bejarano4Gálvez13Chavas16Møller47Fuente

Manager: Mariana Cabral

59'▲Telma Encarnação←▼B. Raphino

69'▲Brenda Pérez←▼Andreia Bravo

79'▲Leonete Correia←▼J. Galabadaarachchi

79'▲Diana Silva←▼Ana Capeta

Sporting CP W substitutes

20Encarnação11Pérez42Correia19Silva22Potra8Gonçalves15Fonseca35Sheppard14Cid5Ribeiro78O'Donnell

Match Recap: Real Madrid W vs Sporting CP W

Real Madrid W beat Sporting CP W 3-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 26, 2024.

Goals: Ana Capeta (5'), S. Toletti (7', 51'), Alba Redondo (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.

Real Madrid W vs Sporting CP W — UEFA Champions League Women 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Madrid W vs Sporting CP W