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Real Madrid W vs Rosenborg W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rosenborg W
Rosenborg W
9/28/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundEstadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Real Madrid W49%
×Draw23%
Rosenborg W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid W
1.82
Rosenborg W
1.32

Real Madrid W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

creates per match

Real Madrid W
2.44
Rosenborg W
1.60

allows per match

Real Madrid W
1.04
Rosenborg W
1.20

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par
Rosenborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Rosenborg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw
72%
Real Madrid W or Rosenborg W
77%
Draw or Rosenborg W
51%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+
27%
Rosenborg W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals
84%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
54%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
27%
Rosenborg W 1+ goals
73%
Rosenborg W 2+ goals
38%
Rosenborg W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
64%
Rosenborg W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Rosenborg W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.44 + Rosenborg W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.82

Rosenborg W attack 1.60 + Real Madrid W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Madrid W scores more
49%
level
23%
Rosenborg W scores more
28%

Real Madrid W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Real Madrid W 2–1 Rosenborg W

Real Madrid W beat Rosenborg W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.