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Real Madrid W vs Rayo Vallecano W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Vallecano W
Rayo Vallecano W
11/6/2021Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 9Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Real Madrid W68%
×Draw19%
Rayo Vallecano W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid W
2.20
Rayo Vallecano W
0.85

Real Madrid W creates 159% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 58 away

creates per match

Real Madrid W
2.29
Rayo Vallecano W
0.81

allows per match

Real Madrid W
0.90
Rayo Vallecano W
2.10

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Rayo Vallecano W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw
87%
Real Madrid W or Rayo Vallecano W
81%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano W
32%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+
44%
Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals
89%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
64%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
37%
Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals
57%
Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals
21%
Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
84%
Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Rayo Vallecano W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.20

Rayo Vallecano W attack 0.81 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Real Madrid W scores more
68%
level
19%
Rayo Vallecano W scores more
13%

Real Madrid W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Real Madrid W 1–0 Rayo Vallecano W

Real Madrid W beat Rayo Vallecano W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.