Real Madrid W vs Athletic Club W

Real Madrid W

Preview

16:00

Athletic Club W

2/7/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 19

Big match

58%

Real Madrid W

model favours

58%22%20%

Real Madrid W have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Real Madrid W58%

×Draw22%

Athletic Club W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid WExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.05

Real Madrid W

1.92

Athletic Club W

1.05

Real Madrid W creates 83% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 120 away

2.29

creates per match

1.21

0.90

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Real Madrid W

2.29

Athletic Club W

1.21

allows per match

Real Madrid W

0.90

Athletic Club W

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Athletic Club W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw

80%

Real Madrid W or Athletic Club W

78%

Draw or Athletic Club W

42%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

34%

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

85%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

57%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

30%

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

65%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

28%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

74%

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.92

Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Madrid W scores more

58%

level

22%

Athletic Club W scores more

20%

Real Madrid W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Real Madrid W win just 56% against the top half (vs 91% against the bottom)
Athletic Club W win just 28% against the top half (vs 60% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Real Madrid W

Possession-dominant

Athletic Club W

Balanced

59%Possession53%

83%Pass accuracy79%

17.7ShotsBiggest gap9.2

—xG—

Real Madrid WAthletic Club W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

8

Real Madrid W

0

Draws

2

Athletic Club W

Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 30%

0–14–12–12–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

WWWWD

W

WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff