Real Madrid W vs Athletic Club W — Primera División Femenina 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 92+ matches
Real Madrid W59%
Athletic Club W19%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Real Madrid W creates 90% more chances
Season form · 92 home / 92 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real Madrid W ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches
Athletic Club W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 92 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Athletic Club W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.96
Athletic Club W attack 1.17 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
Real Madrid W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Barcelona W
Real Sociedad WReal Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
Granad. Tenerife W
Levante WAthletic Club W
Sevilla W
Real Betis W
Sporting Huelva W
Deportivo Alavés
Villarreal W
Madrid CFF W
Valencia W
Eibar W
Rayo Vallecano WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Real Madrid W host Athletic Club W on Sunday, 22 September 2024 at 17:00. The match is part of the Primera División Femenina 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Real Madrid W vs Athletic Club W
Real Madrid W beat Athletic Club W 2-0 in Primera División Femenina on September 22, 2024.
Goals: Olga Carmona (18' pen), Maite Zubieta (23' o.g.).
Athletic Club W controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 15.
The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.