Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad — La Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 34+ matches
Real Madrid59%
Real Sociedad19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Real Madrid creates 96% more chances
Season form · 42 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real Madrid ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real Madrid at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches
Real Sociedad away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real Madrid attack 2.26 + Real Sociedad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.88
Real Sociedad attack 1.05 + Real Madrid defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
Real Madrid at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "Real Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Real Sociedad substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
BarcelonaReal Madrid
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
Celta Vigo
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
ValenciaReal Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Elche
Alaves
Sevilla
Osasuna
Mallorca
Levante
Girona
OviedoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Real Madrid host Real Sociedad on Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 20:00. The match is part of the La Liga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 4-1 in La Liga on February 14, 2026.
Goals: G. Garcia (5'), M. Oyarzabal (21' pen), Vinicius Junior (25' pen, 48' pen), F. Valverde (31').
Real Madrid controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 13.
The match was played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid.