Real Madrid 2–0 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Real Madrid

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levante

R. Asencio 65'

K. Mbappe 58' (pen)

1/17/2026

La Liga · Round 20Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Madrid58%

×Draw22%

Levante20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MadridExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.03

Real Madrid

1.91

Levante

1.03

Real Madrid creates 85% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

2.11

creates per match

1.18

0.88

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Real Madrid

2.11

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Real Madrid

0.88

Levante

1.71

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Real Madrid+0.18scores more

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Madrid or draw

80%

Real Madrid or Levante

78%

Draw or Levante

42%

Winning margin

Real Madrid wins by 2+

34%

Levante wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Madrid 1+ goals

85%

Real Madrid 2+ goals

57%

Real Madrid 3+ goals

30%

Levante 1+ goals

64%

Levante 2+ goals

28%

Levante 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid (draw refunded)

74%

Levante (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.88 · 28 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid attack 2.11 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.91

Levante attack 1.18 + Real Madrid defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Madrid scores more

58%

level

22%

Levante scores more

20%

Real Madrid at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Unai Vencedor

31'

Aurélien Tchouaméni

43'

Gonzalo García

46'

A. Guler← E. Camavinga

46'

F. Mastantuono← G. Garcia

58'

K. MbappePenalty

61'

D. Ceballos← D. Huijsen

65'

R. Asencio↳ A. Guler

66'

U. Raghouber← U. Vencedor

66'

I. Losada← K. Etta Eyong

83'

J. A. Olasagasti← I. Romero

83'

P. Cortes← C. Alvarez

83'

C. Espi← K. Tunde

90'

D. Alaba← R. Asencio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealLevante

Overview

70%Possession30%

26Total Shots10

2.88Expected Goals (xG)0.80

8Corners0

12Fouls14

Shots

26Total Shots10

11On Target0

10Off Target8

5Blocked2

15Inside Box5

11Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

719Total Passes306

661Accurate Passes236

92%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

0.95Goals Prevented0.95

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Real Madrid vs Levante

Real Madrid beat Levante 2-0 in La Liga on January 17, 2026.

Goals: K. Mbappe (58' pen), R. Asencio (65').

Real Madrid controlled possession (70%) and registered 26 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid.

Real Madrid vs Levante — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Real Madrid vs Levante