Real Madrid 1–2 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Real Madrid

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Levante

Marcelo 72'

Roger Martí 13' (pen)

José Luis Morales 6'

10/20/2018

La Liga · Round 9Santiago Bernabéu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Madrid57%

×Draw22%

Levante20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MadridExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.03

Real Madrid

1.89

Levante

1.03

Real Madrid creates 83% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

2.07

creates per match

1.18

0.88

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Real Madrid

2.07

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Real Madrid

0.88

Levante

1.71

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Real Madrid+0.17scores more

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Madrid or draw

80%

Real Madrid or Levante

78%

Draw or Levante

43%

Winning margin

Real Madrid wins by 2+

33%

Levante wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Madrid 1+ goals

85%

Real Madrid 2+ goals

56%

Real Madrid 3+ goals

29%

Levante 1+ goals

64%

Levante 2+ goals

28%

Levante 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid (draw refunded)

74%

Levante (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.88 · 29 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid attack 2.07 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Levante attack 1.18 + Real Madrid defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Madrid scores more

57%

level

22%

Levante scores more

20%

Real Madrid at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Oier

Levante · G

8.9

Match Events

6'

José Luis Morales↳ Sergio Postigo

13'

Roger MartíPenalty

46'

G. Bale← Álvaro Odriozola

53'

Erick Cabaco

60'

K. Benzema← Isco

60'

Dani Ceballos← Marco Asensio

67'

C. Doukouré← Rubén Rochina

72'

Marcelo↳ K. Benzema

75'

Chema← Sergio Postigo

79'

E. Boateng← Roger Martí

89'

Jason

90'

Marcelo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealLevante

Overview

70%Possession30%

33Total Shots6

15Corners1

10Fouls19

Shots

33Total Shots6

12On Target2

13Off Target3

8Blocked1

25Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

606Total Passes271

544Accurate Passes190

90%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves11

Discipline

10Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides5