Real Madrid 0–1 Getafe: Result & Stats | La Liga

Real Madrid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Getafe

M. Satriano 39'

3/2/2026

La Liga · Round 26Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Real Madrid61%

×Draw22%

Getafe17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MadridExpected goals in this matchGetafe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.86

Real Madrid

1.85

Getafe

0.86

Real Madrid creates 115% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 40 away

2.26

creates per match

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Real Madrid

2.26

Getafe

0.86

allows per match

Real Madrid

0.86

Getafe

1.44

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Real Madrid+0.17scores more

Getafe-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid ↓

Getafe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Madrid or draw

83%

Real Madrid or Getafe

78%

Draw or Getafe

39%

Winning margin

Real Madrid wins by 2+

35%

Getafe wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Madrid 1+ goals

84%

Real Madrid 2+ goals

55%

Real Madrid 3+ goals

28%

Getafe 1+ goals

58%

Getafe 2+ goals

21%

Getafe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid (draw refunded)

78%

Getafe (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

Getafe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid attack 2.26 + Getafe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.85

Getafe attack 0.86 + Real Madrid defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Madrid scores more

61%

level

22%

Getafe scores more

17%

Real Madrid at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Kiko Femenía

35'

Mauro Arambarri

39'

M. Satriano↳ M. Arambarri

55'

D. Carvajal← T. Alexander-Arnold

55'

Rodrygo← T. Pitarch

55'

D. Huijsen← D. Alaba

58'

A. Liso← Kiko Femenia

64'

Diego Rico

68'

Dean Huijsen

69'

F. Mastantuono← A. Guler

69'

M. Martin← L. Vazquez

71'

Aurélien Tchouaméni

79'

Adrian Liso

84'

Martín Satriano

87'

B. Diaz← A. Tchouameni

90+4'

90+4'

90+5'

90+7'

90+7'

90+1'

A. Abqar← M. Satriano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealGetafe

Overview

77%Possession23%

18Total Shots9

1.91Expected Goals (xG)0.49

10Corners2

11Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots9

7On Target3

7Off Target2

4Blocked4

15Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

77%Possession23%

675Total Passes200

606Accurate Passes128

90%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

2.41Goals Prevented2.41

Discipline

11Fouls17

4Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards1

0Offsides1