Real Madrid 3–1 Atalanta: Result & Stats

Real Madrid

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atalanta

Asensio 84'

Sergio Ramos 60' (pen)

K. Benzema 34'

L. Muriel 83'

3/16/2021

UEFA Champions League · 8th FinalsEstadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Real Madrid57%

×Draw20%

Atalanta22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MadridExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.30

Real Madrid

2.18

Atalanta

1.30

Real Madrid creates 68% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

2.35

creates per match

1.37

1.23

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Real Madrid

2.35

Atalanta

1.37

allows per match

Real Madrid

1.23

Atalanta

2.01

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Real Madrid-0.13scores less

Atalanta-0.54scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Real Madrid or draw

78%

Real Madrid or Atalanta

80%

Draw or Atalanta

43%

Winning margin

Real Madrid wins by 2+

35%

Atalanta wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Madrid 1+ goals

89%

Real Madrid 2+ goals

64%

Real Madrid 3+ goals

37%

Atalanta 1+ goals

73%

Atalanta 2+ goals

37%

Atalanta 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid (draw refunded)

72%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid attack 2.35 + Atalanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.18

Atalanta attack 1.37 + Real Madrid defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Madrid scores more

57%

level

20%

Atalanta scores more

22%

Real Madrid at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Modrić

Real Madrid · M

7.9

Match Events

34'

K. Benzema↳ L. Modrić

39'

Federico Valverde

46'

D. Zapata← M. Pašalić

57'

J. Iličić← R. Gosens

58'

Rafael Tolói

60'

Sergio RamosPenalty

61'

J. Palomino← R. Tolói

64'

Éder Militão← Sergio Ramos

69'

Rodrygo← Vinícius Júnior

73'

77'

82'

83'

84'

M. Caldara← M. Pessina

84'

A. Miranchuk← L. Muriel

84'

Asensio↳ Lucas Vázquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealAtalanta

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots13

0Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target5

3Off Target5

3Blocked3

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

551Total Passes480

470Accurate Passes393

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1