Real Madrid U19 4–1 Sheriff U19: Result & Stats

Real Madrid U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sheriff U19

Julen Landabaso 79'

Bruno Iglesias 71' (pen), 51'

Javi Villar 37'

Pau 47' (OG)

9/28/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Real Madrid U1969%

×Draw16%

Sheriff U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid U19Expected goals in this matchSheriff U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.19

Real Madrid U19

2.71

Sheriff U19

1.19

Real Madrid U19 creates 128% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

2.67

creates per match

1.13

1.25

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Real Madrid U19

2.67

Sheriff U19

1.13

allows per match

Real Madrid U19

1.25

Sheriff U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Sheriff U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid U19 ↓

Sheriff U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Real Madrid U19 or draw

85%

Real Madrid U19 or Sheriff U19

84%

Draw or Sheriff U19

31%

Winning margin

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+

48%

Sheriff U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals

93%

Real Madrid U19 2+ goals

75%

Real Madrid U19 3+ goals

50%

Sheriff U19 1+ goals

70%

Sheriff U19 2+ goals

33%

Sheriff U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Sheriff U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Sheriff U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.67 + Sheriff U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.71

Sheriff U19 attack 1.13 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Real Madrid U19 scores more

69%

level

16%

Sheriff U19 scores more

15%

Real Madrid U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

A. Hatman

37'

Javi Villar↳ Bruno Iglesias

47'

PauOwn goal

51'

Bruno Iglesias↳ Gonzalo

54'

62'

62'

65'

65'

69'

69'

D. Pogreban← N. Covalschi

71'

Bruno IglesiasPenalty

75'

N. Picus

75'

T. Nakai← Manuel Ángel

75'

Julen Landabaso← Gonzalo

79'

Julen Landabaso

82'

Manuel Serrano← Marvel

90+3'

V. Yaţco← P. Cucereavenco

90+2'

V. Coliş← V. Costin

Real

Sheriff

33

Dumenco

77

Picus

35

Ichim

11

▼

Covalschi

23

Scurtul

24

▼

Costin

55

Forov

98

▼

Cucereave

17

▼

Hatman

44

Carmanov

8

▼

38

27

12

5

32

▼

Marvel

10

González

8

⚽2A

Iglesias

30

▼

Ángel

21

⚽

▼

Villar

26

A

▼

Gonzalo

20

🥅

▼

Pau

Manager: Hernán Pérez

65'▲Víctor Muñoz←▼Pau

65'▲Cucalón←▼Javi Villar

75'▲T. Nakai←▼Manuel Ángel

75'▲Julen Landabaso←▼Gonzalo

82'▲Manuel Serrano←▼Marvel

Real Madrid U19 substitutes

23Muñoz40Cucalón22Nakai28Landabaso35Serrano7Peter33Piñeiro

Manager: A. Corneencov

62'▲D. Boţan←▼A. Untura

69'▲A. Jaloba←▼A. Hatman

69'▲D. Pogreban←▼N. Covalschi

90+3'▲V. Yaţco←▼P. Cucereavenco

90+2'▲V. Coliş←▼V. Costin

Sheriff U19 substitutes

22Boţan14Jaloba9Pogreban3Yaţco15Coliş1Savocica25Filipov