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Real Madrid III vs Navalcarnero — League #879 2026

Real Madrid III
Real Madrid III
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Navalcarnero
Navalcarnero
1/19/2025League #879League #879 · Group 5 - 19Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Madrid III42%
×Draw33%
Navalcarnero24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid III
1.01
Navalcarnero
0.69

Real Madrid III creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Madrid III
0.67
Navalcarnero
0.71

allows per match

Real Madrid III
0.67
Navalcarnero
1.35

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par
Navalcarnero+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

Navalcarnero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw
76%
Real Madrid III or Navalcarnero
67%
Draw or Navalcarnero
58%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+
17%
Navalcarnero wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals
64%
Real Madrid III 2+ goals
27%
Real Madrid III 3+ goals
8%
Navalcarnero 1+ goals
50%
Navalcarnero 2+ goals
15%
Navalcarnero 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)
63%
Navalcarnero (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Navalcarnero away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 0.67 + Navalcarnero defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.01

Navalcarnero attack 0.71 + Real Madrid III defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Madrid III scores more
42%
level
33%
Navalcarnero scores more
24%

Real Madrid III at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #879: Real Madrid III 0–0 Navalcarnero

Real Madrid III and Navalcarnero drew 0-0 in League #879 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3 in Madrid.