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Real Madrid III vs Canillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Madrid III
Real Madrid III
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Canillas
Canillas
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III70%
×Draw19%
Canillas11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid III
2.08
Canillas
0.67

Real Madrid III creates 210% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Real Madrid III
2.29
Canillas
1.04

allows per match

Real Madrid III
0.29
Canillas
1.86

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par
Canillas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

Canillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw
89%
Real Madrid III or Canillas
81%
Draw or Canillas
30%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+
45%
Canillas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals
87%
Real Madrid III 2+ goals
61%
Real Madrid III 3+ goals
34%
Canillas 1+ goals
49%
Canillas 2+ goals
15%
Canillas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)
87%
Canillas (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

Canillas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + Canillas defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.08

Canillas attack 1.04 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Real Madrid III scores more
70%
level
19%
Canillas scores more
11%

Real Madrid III at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Real Madrid III 5–1 Canillas

Real Madrid III beat Canillas 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7 in Madrid.