Real Madrid III 2–1 Alcobendas Sport

Real Madrid III

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alcobendas Sport

3/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III61%

×Draw23%

Alcobendas Sport16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIIExpected goals in this matchAlcobendas Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.80

Real Madrid III

1.79

Alcobendas Sport

0.80

Real Madrid III creates 124% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 117 away

2.29

creates per match

1.31

0.29

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Real Madrid III

2.29

Alcobendas Sport

1.31

allows per match

Real Madrid III

0.29

Alcobendas Sport

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

Alcobendas Sport →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw

84%

Real Madrid III or Alcobendas Sport

77%

Draw or Alcobendas Sport

39%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

35%

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

83%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

53%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

26%

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals

55%

Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals

19%

Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

79%

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Madrid III scores more

61%

level

23%

Alcobendas Sport scores more

16%

Real Madrid III at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid III vs Alcobendas Sport

Real Madrid III beat Alcobendas Sport 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7 in Madrid.

Real Madrid III vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Madrid III vs Alcobendas Sport