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Real Madrid II vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
5/2/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Real Madrid II50%
×Draw27%
Unionistas de Salamanca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.45
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.88

Real Madrid II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 106 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.62
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.85
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
77%
Real Madrid II or Unionistas de Salamanca
73%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
50%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
25%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
77%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
42%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
18%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
59%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
22%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
69%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
50%
level
27%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
23%

Real Madrid II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Unionistas de Salamanca

Real Madrid II beat Unionistas de Salamanca 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.