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Real Madrid II vs Sevilla Atletico — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
3/9/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Madrid II60%
×Draw23%
Sevilla Atletico17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.75
Sevilla Atletico
0.79

Real Madrid II creates 122% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.96
Sevilla Atletico
0.65

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.93
Sevilla Atletico
1.53

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Sevilla Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
83%
Real Madrid II or Sevilla Atletico
77%
Draw or Sevilla Atletico
40%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
34%
Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
83%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
52%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
25%
Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
55%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
19%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
78%
Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.96 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Real Madrid II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
60%
level
23%
Sevilla Atletico scores more
17%

Real Madrid II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Sevilla Atletico

Real Madrid II and Sevilla Atletico drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.