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Real Madrid II vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
11/20/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Madrid II50%
×Draw26%
San Fernando CD23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.47
San Fernando CD
0.90

Real Madrid II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.62
San Fernando CD
0.95

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.85
San Fernando CD
1.32

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
77%
Real Madrid II or San Fernando CD
74%
Draw or San Fernando CD
50%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
25%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
77%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
43%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
18%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
59%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
23%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
69%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

San Fernando CD attack 0.95 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
50%
level
26%
San Fernando CD scores more
23%

Real Madrid II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Madrid II 2 – 0 San Fernando CD

Real Madrid II beat San Fernando CD 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.