Real Madrid II vs Sabadell — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 57+ matches
Real Madrid II47%
Sabadell27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Real Madrid II creates 41% more chances
Season form · 57 home / 57 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real Madrid II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches
Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real Madrid II attack 1.96 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.52
Sabadell attack 1.23 + Real Madrid II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Real Madrid II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
EldenseSabadell
Atlético Madrid II
Villarreal II
Europa Fc
FC Cartagena
Antequera
Algeciras
Hércules
Real Murcia
Alcorcon
Ibiza
Teruel
Gimnastic
Juventud Torremolinos
Tarazona
Real Betis II
Marbella
Sanluqueño
Sevilla AtleticoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Real Madrid II host Sabadell on Saturday, 20 November 2021 at 16:00. The match is part of the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Sabadell
Real Madrid II beat Sabadell 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 20, 2021.
Goals: Latasa (24'), Óscar Aranda (54' pen), Carlos Dotor (61' pen).
The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.