Real Madrid II 0–1 Ponferradina: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ponferradina

E. Frimpong 90'

3/1/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Real Madrid II44%

×Draw29%

Ponferradina27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchPonferradina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.90

Real Madrid II

1.24

Ponferradina

0.90

Real Madrid II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 57 away

1.62

creates per match

0.95

0.85

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.62

Ponferradina

0.95

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.85

Ponferradina

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Ponferradina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

73%

Real Madrid II or Ponferradina

71%

Draw or Ponferradina

56%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

20%

Ponferradina wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

71%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

35%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

13%

Ponferradina 1+ goals

59%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

23%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

62%

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

44%

level

29%

Ponferradina scores more

27%

Real Madrid II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

9'

30'

62'

62'

C. Calderon← Koke

65'

M. Serrano← D. Aguado

65'

B. Iglesias Lois← A. Gines

71'

V. Esquerdo← J. Cortes

71'

Slavy← V. Kysil

77'

J. Fortea← D. Jimenez

77'

A. Arnuncio← D. Yanez

81'

84'

90+9'

90+9'

90+11'

90'

P. Ferrer← B. Vazquez

90'

E. Frimpong

Real

Ponferradina

1

Prieto

12

▼

Koke

3

Novoa

26

▼

Kysil

19

Lopez

17

▼

Keita

5

Undabarre

16

⚽

Frimpong

10

Valle

9

▼

Cortes

18

▼

Vazquez

1

Fran

2

▼

Jimenez

4

Rivas

23

Fati

21

▼

8

14

20

7

▼

Yanez

37

▼

Gines

10

Palacios

Manager: Julian Lopez de Lerma

65'▲M. Serrano←▼D. Aguado

65'▲B. Iglesias Lois←▼A. Gines

77'▲J. Fortea←▼D. Jimenez

77'▲A. Arnuncio←▼D. Yanez

Real Madrid II substitutes

13Sunico5Serrano6Perea11Lois17Fortea30Mesonero33Castrelo49Arnuncio

Manager: Mehdi Nafti

62'▲M. Jorrin←▼A. Keita

62'▲C. Calderon←▼Koke

71'▲V. Esquerdo←▼J. Cortes

71'▲Slavy←▼V. Kysil

90'▲P. Ferrer←▼B. Vazquez

Ponferradina substitutes

13Jimenez25Barredo23Jorrin4Moltenis15Sousa22Esquerdo7Calderon8Slavy11Petkov20Ferrer

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina

Ponferradina beat Real Madrid II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 1, 2026.

Goals: E. Frimpong (90').

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.

Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Ponferradina