Real Madrid II 3–1 Marino de Luanco: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Marino de Luanco

Miguel Baeza 34'

Emilio Morilla 16' (OG)

Adrián de la Fuente 14'

Álex Arias 4'

8/31/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Madrid II59%

×Draw24%

Marino de Luanco17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchMarino de Luanco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.77

Real Madrid II

1.66

Marino de Luanco

0.77

Real Madrid II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 26 away

1.62

creates per match

0.69

0.85

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.62

Marino de Luanco

0.69

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.85

Marino de Luanco

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Marino de Luanco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

83%

Real Madrid II or Marino de Luanco

76%

Draw or Marino de Luanco

41%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

32%

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

81%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

49%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

23%

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

54%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

18%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

77%

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

59%

level

24%

Marino de Luanco scores more

17%

Real Madrid II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Álex Arias

14'

Adrián de la Fuente

16'

Emilio MorillaOwn goal

34'

Miguel Baeza

46'

David González← Pablo Pérez

53'

Mikel Busto← Guaya

63'

Álvaro Bravo← Antonio Blanco

68'

C. Mboup← Mika

70'

Marvin← Jordi

77'

Latasa← Pedro Ruiz

Real

Marino

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl

63'▲Álvaro Bravo←▼Antonio Blanco

70'▲Marvin←▼Jordi

77'▲Latasa←▼Pedro Ruiz

Real Madrid II substitutes

BravoMarvinLatasaRodríguezHernandoChustLópez

Manager: Oli

46'▲David González←▼Pablo Pérez

53'▲Mikel Busto←▼Guaya

68'▲C. Mboup←▼Mika

Marino de Luanco substitutes

GonzálezBustoMboupPorrónLozanoMathePrado

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Madrid II 3–1 Marino de Luanco

Real Madrid II beat Marino de Luanco 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 31, 2019.

Goals: Álex Arias (4'), Adrián de la Fuente (14'), Emilio Morilla (16' o.g.), Miguel Baeza (34').

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.

Real Madrid II vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Madrid II 3–1 Marino de Luanco