Real Madrid II 2–1 Lugo: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lugo

D. Yanez 59'

J. Cestero Sancho 55'

L. Junior 74' (pen)

8/29/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Real Madrid II51%

×Draw27%

Lugo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchLugo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.84

Real Madrid II

1.42

Lugo

0.84

Real Madrid II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 57 away

1.62

creates per match

0.84

0.85

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.62

Lugo

0.84

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.85

Lugo

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Lugo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

78%

Real Madrid II or Lugo

73%

Draw or Lugo

49%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

25%

Lugo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

76%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

41%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

17%

Lugo 1+ goals

57%

Lugo 2+ goals

21%

Lugo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

69%

Lugo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Lugo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lugo attack 0.84 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

51%

level

27%

Lugo scores more

22%

Real Madrid II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Diego Aguado Facio

26'

Neco Celorio

46'

P. Fortuny← C. Perea

55'

J. Cestero Sancho↳ P. Fortuny

59'

D. Yanez↳ J. Fortea

61'

Manual Angel

62'

A. Balboa← K. Presa

62'

V. Pastrana← J. Gonzalez

68'

V. Valdepenas← D. Aguado

68'

L. Zuniga← D. Yanez

74'

L. JuniorPenalty

76'

T. Alba← N. Celorio

77'

Joan Martinez

81'

B. Iglesias Lois← R. Martin

83'

N. Reniero← I. Unzueta

87'

M. Serrano← R. Fettal

90+2'

Alex Balboa

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RealLugo

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots9

4Corners3

Shots

8Total Shots9

3On Target3

5Off Target6

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

3Yellow Cards2