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Real Madrid II vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
2/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Madrid II63%
×Draw23%
Las Palmas II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.71
Las Palmas II
0.63

Real Madrid II creates 171% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.62
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.85
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
87%
Real Madrid II or Las Palmas II
77%
Draw or Las Palmas II
37%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
36%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
82%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
51%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
24%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
47%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
13%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
83%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
63%
level
23%
Las Palmas II scores more
13%

Real Madrid II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Las Palmas II

Real Madrid II beat Las Palmas II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.