Real Madrid II 0–0 Langreo: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Langreo

9/14/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Madrid II54%

×Draw26%

Langreo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchLangreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.81

Real Madrid II

1.52

Langreo

0.81

Real Madrid II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 27 away

1.62

creates per match

0.78

0.85

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.62

Langreo

0.78

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.85

Langreo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Langreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Langreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

80%

Real Madrid II or Langreo

74%

Draw or Langreo

46%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

28%

Langreo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

78%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

45%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

20%

Langreo 1+ goals

56%

Langreo 2+ goals

19%

Langreo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

73%

Langreo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Langreo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Langreo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Langreo attack 0.78 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

54%

level

26%

Langreo scores more

20%

Real Madrid II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Marc Nierga← Allyson

62'

Marvin← Jordi

65'

Varo Gómez← Cristian Carracedo

73'

Fran García← Javi Hernández

73'

David Álvarez← Jorge Hernández

80'

F. Feuillassier← Miguel Baeza

Real

Langreo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl

62'▲Marvin←▼Jordi

73'▲Fran García←▼Javi Hernández

80'▲F. Feuillassier←▼Miguel Baeza

Real Madrid II substitutes

MarvinGarcíaFeuillassierBlancoRodríguezHernandoFuidias

Manager: Dani Mori

46'▲Marc Nierga←▼Allyson

65'▲Varo Gómez←▼Cristian Carracedo

73'▲David Álvarez←▼Jorge Hernández

Langreo substitutes

NiergaGómezÁlvarezTorreGomesTineoMontero