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Real Madrid II vs Granada II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Granada II
Granada II
5/12/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 36Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Madrid II63%
×Draw22%
Granada II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.88
Granada II
0.78

Real Madrid II creates 141% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.96
Granada II
0.63

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.93
Granada II
1.79

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Granada II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Granada II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
85%
Real Madrid II or Granada II
78%
Draw or Granada II
37%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
38%
Granada II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
85%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
56%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
29%
Granada II 1+ goals
54%
Granada II 2+ goals
18%
Granada II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
81%
Granada II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Granada II away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.96 + Granada II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.88

Granada II attack 0.63 + Real Madrid II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
63%
level
22%
Granada II scores more
15%

Real Madrid II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Madrid II 1–0 Granada II

Real Madrid II beat Granada II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.