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Real Madrid II vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
12/3/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Real Madrid II48%
×Draw26%
Cultural Leonesa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.47
Cultural Leonesa
1.00

Real Madrid II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 88 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.62
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.85
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
74%
Real Madrid II or Cultural Leonesa
74%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
52%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
24%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
77%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
43%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
18%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
63%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
26%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
65%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
48%
level
26%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
26%

Real Madrid II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Madrid II 1–1 Cultural Leonesa

Real Madrid II and Cultural Leonesa drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.