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Real Madrid II vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
3/14/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Real Madrid II53%
×Draw24%
Atlético Madrid II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.73
Atlético Madrid II
1.08

Real Madrid II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
2.00
Atlético Madrid II
1.00

allows per match

Real Madrid II
1.17
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
76%
Real Madrid II or Atlético Madrid II
76%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
47%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
29%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
82%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
52%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
25%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 2.00 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.00 + Real Madrid II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
53%
level
24%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
24%

Real Madrid II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Real Madrid II 3–1 Atlético Madrid II

Real Madrid II beat Atlético Madrid II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3 in Madrid.