Real Madrid II 0–3 AD Ceuta FC: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

AD Ceuta FC

5/7/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Madrid II49%

×Draw26%

AD Ceuta FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchAD Ceuta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.98

Real Madrid II

1.50

AD Ceuta FC

0.98

Real Madrid II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

1.62

creates per match

1.11

0.85

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.62

AD Ceuta FC

1.11

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.85

AD Ceuta FC

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

AD Ceuta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

75%

Real Madrid II or AD Ceuta FC

74%

Draw or AD Ceuta FC

51%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

25%

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

78%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

44%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

19%

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

62%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

26%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

67%

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.11 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

49%

level

26%

AD Ceuta FC scores more

25%

Real Madrid II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff