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Real Koyari vs La Fama — Division di Honor 2019

Real Koyari
Real Koyari
FT
0 – 13
La Fama
La Fama
3/1/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Real Koyari5%
×Draw8%
La Fama88%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Koyari
1.08
La Fama
4.44

La Fama creates 311% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 51 away

creates per match

Real Koyari
0.70
La Fama
1.98

allows per match

Real Koyari
6.90
La Fama
1.47

finishing

Real Koyari+0.00on par
La Fama+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Koyari ↓

La Fama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–25%
0–37%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Real Koyari or draw
12%
Real Koyari or La Fama
92%
Draw or La Fama
95%

Winning margin

Real Koyari wins by 2+
1%
La Fama wins by 2+
74%

Team goals

Real Koyari 1+ goals
66%
Real Koyari 2+ goals
29%
Real Koyari 3+ goals
10%
La Fama 1+ goals
99%
La Fama 2+ goals
92%
La Fama 3+ goals
78%

Draw no bet

Real Koyari (draw refunded)
5%
La Fama (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Koyari at home — creates 0.70, concedes 6.90 · 10 matches

La Fama away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Koyari attack 0.70 + La Fama defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.08

La Fama attack 1.98 + Real Koyari defence 6.90 → ÷2 → 4.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Real Koyari scores more
5%
level
8%
La Fama scores more
88%

La Fama at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "La Fama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Koyari 0 – 13 La Fama

La Fama beat Real Koyari 13-0 in Division di Honor on March 1, 2026.