Real Kashmir 2–0 Rajasthan United: Result & Stats

Real Kashmir

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rajasthan United

10/28/2023

I-League · Round 1TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Real Kashmir52%

×Draw23%

Rajasthan United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real KashmirExpected goals in this matchRajasthan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.20

Real Kashmir

1.83

Rajasthan United

1.20

Real Kashmir creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 49 away

1.62

creates per match

1.24

1.16

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Real Kashmir

1.62

Rajasthan United

1.24

allows per match

Real Kashmir

1.16

Rajasthan United

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Rajasthan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Rajasthan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw

75%

Real Kashmir or Rajasthan United

77%

Draw or Rajasthan United

48%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

29%

Rajasthan United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

84%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

54%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

28%

Rajasthan United 1+ goals

70%

Rajasthan United 2+ goals

34%

Rajasthan United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

68%

Rajasthan United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Rajasthan United away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.62 + Rajasthan United defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Rajasthan United attack 1.24 + Real Kashmir defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Kashmir scores more

52%

level

23%

Rajasthan United scores more

25%

Real Kashmir at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff