Real Kashmir 1–3 Churchill Brothers: Result & Stats

Real Kashmir

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Churchill Brothers

11/8/2023

I-League · Round 3TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Real Kashmir41%

×Draw25%

Churchill Brothers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real KashmirExpected goals in this matchChurchill Brothers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.31

Real Kashmir

1.47

Churchill Brothers

1.31

Real Kashmir creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 58 away

1.63

creates per match

1.48

1.15

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Real Kashmir

1.63

Churchill Brothers

1.48

allows per match

Real Kashmir

1.15

Churchill Brothers

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Churchill Brothers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Churchill Brothers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw

66%

Real Kashmir or Churchill Brothers

75%

Draw or Churchill Brothers

59%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

20%

Churchill Brothers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

77%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

43%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

18%

Churchill Brothers 1+ goals

73%

Churchill Brothers 2+ goals

38%

Churchill Brothers 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

55%

Churchill Brothers (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

Churchill Brothers away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.63 + Churchill Brothers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Churchill Brothers attack 1.48 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Kashmir scores more

41%

level

25%

Churchill Brothers scores more

34%

Real Kashmir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff