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Real Kashmir vs Chennai City — I-League 2019

Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Chennai City
Chennai City
12/26/2019I-LeagueI-League · Round 2TRC Turf Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Real Kashmir40%
×Draw25%
Chennai City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Kashmir
1.47
Chennai City
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 16 away

creates per match

Real Kashmir
1.63
Chennai City
1.56

allows per match

Real Kashmir
1.15
Chennai City
1.31

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par
Chennai City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Chennai City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw
65%
Real Kashmir or Chennai City
75%
Draw or Chennai City
60%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+
19%
Chennai City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals
77%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
43%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
18%
Chennai City 1+ goals
74%
Chennai City 2+ goals
39%
Chennai City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
54%
Chennai City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

Chennai City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.63 + Chennai City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chennai City attack 1.56 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Kashmir scores more
40%
level
25%
Chennai City scores more
35%

Real Kashmir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Real Kashmir 2–1 Chennai City

Real Kashmir beat Chennai City 2-1 in I-League on December 26, 2019.

The match was played at TRC Turf Ground in Jammu.