Real Kashmir 1–2 Chanmari: Result & Stats

Real Kashmir

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chanmari

M. Obekop 64'

J. Lalruatsanga 62'

Marlon 43'

4/6/2026

I-League · Round 7TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Real Kashmir52%

×Draw22%

Chanmari26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real KashmirExpected goals in this matchChanmari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.32

Real Kashmir

1.94

Chanmari

1.32

Real Kashmir creates 47% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 8 away

1.63

creates per match

1.50

1.14

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Real Kashmir

1.63

Chanmari

1.50

allows per match

Real Kashmir

1.14

Chanmari

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Chanmari+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Chanmari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw

74%

Real Kashmir or Chanmari

78%

Draw or Chanmari

48%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

30%

Chanmari wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

86%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

58%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

30%

Chanmari 1+ goals

73%

Chanmari 2+ goals

38%

Chanmari 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

66%

Chanmari (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.14 · 70 matches

Chanmari away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.63 + Chanmari defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.94

Chanmari attack 1.50 + Real Kashmir defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Kashmir scores more

52%

level

22%

Chanmari scores more

26%

Real Kashmir at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

K. Issah

32'

L. Ralte

43'

Marlon↳ C. Kamei

54'

M. Inam

59'

A. Dar← R. Singh

62'

J. Lalruatsanga↳ C. Kamei

64'

M. Obekop

81'

M. Shereef

82'

M. Oshie← D. Traore

85'

C. Lalmuanpuia← C. Kamei

87'

A. Rehbar← B. Bhat

90'

L. Pedro← A. Vanlalrinchhana

90+3'

L. Tochhawng← K. Malsawmsanga

90'

S. Suanngaihmuana← Tche Tche

Real

Chanmari

21

Zothanmaw

10

▼

Malsawmsa

17

Fanai

18

▼

Tche

14

⚽

Lalruatsa

6

A

▼

Kamei

16

Lalruatdi

22

▼

Vanlalrin

24

Lalrameng

23

⚽

25

55

18

23

▼

31

22

7

20

66

▼

Singh

28

⚽

Obekop

32

Traore

45

Charles

Manager: I. Ahmed

59'▲A. Dar←▼R. Singh

82'▲M. Oshie←▼D. Traore

87'▲A. Rehbar←▼B. Bhat

Real Kashmir substitutes

1Ahmad90Baretto15Fofana4Singh2Singh5Oshie10Rehbar17Bashir11Dar25Haokip

85'▲C. Lalmuanpuia←▼C. Kamei

90'▲L. Pedro←▼A. Vanlalrinchhana

90+3'▲L. Tochhawng←▼K. Malsawmsanga

90'▲S. Suanngaihmuana←▼Tche Tche

Chanmari substitutes

74Lallawmzuala35Badu15Renthlei4Thangpuia20Lalmuanpuia27Lalthangliana19Pedro5Tochhawng99Temuri9Suanngaihmuana

I-League: Real Kashmir 1–2 Chanmari

Chanmari beat Real Kashmir 2-1 in I-League on April 6, 2026.

Goals: Marlon (43'), J. Lalruatsanga (62'), M. Obekop (64').

The match was played at TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground in Srinagar.

Real Kashmir vs Chanmari — I-League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I-League: Real Kashmir 1–2 Chanmari