Real Jaén 4–0 Vélez: Result & Stats

Real Jaén

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vélez

10/6/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Jaén58%

×Draw22%

Vélez20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real JaénExpected goals in this matchVélez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.00

Real Jaén

1.87

Vélez

1.00

Real Jaén creates 87% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 26 away

2.12

creates per match

1.19

0.82

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Real Jaén

2.12

Vélez

1.19

allows per match

Real Jaén

0.82

Vélez

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Vélez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Vélez →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw

80%

Real Jaén or Vélez

78%

Draw or Vélez

42%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+

33%

Vélez wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

85%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

56%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

29%

Vélez 1+ goals

63%

Vélez 2+ goals

26%

Vélez 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

74%

Vélez (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Vélez away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Vélez defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.87

Vélez attack 1.19 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Jaén scores more

58%

level

22%

Vélez scores more

20%

Real Jaén at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff