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Real Jaén vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Real Jaén
Real Jaén
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
4/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 3Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Jaén72%
×Draw17%
Melilla CD11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Jaén
2.37
Melilla CD
0.82

Real Jaén creates 189% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 28 away

creates per match

Real Jaén
2.12
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Real Jaén
0.82
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw
89%
Real Jaén or Melilla CD
83%
Draw or Melilla CD
28%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+
48%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals
91%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
68%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
42%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
56%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
20%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)
86%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.37

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Real Jaén scores more
72%
level
17%
Melilla CD scores more
11%

Real Jaén at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Real Jaén 1–0 Melilla CD

Real Jaén beat Melilla CD 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio La Victoria in Jaén.