Real Jaén 3–4 Málaga II: Result & Stats

Real Jaén

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Málaga II

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 34Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Real Jaén50%

×Draw25%

Málaga II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real JaénExpected goals in this matchMálaga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.08

Real Jaén

1.61

Málaga II

1.08

Real Jaén creates 49% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 92 away

2.12

creates per match

1.35

0.82

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Real Jaén

2.12

Málaga II

1.35

allows per match

Real Jaén

0.82

Málaga II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Málaga II →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw

74%

Real Jaén or Málaga II

75%

Draw or Málaga II

50%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+

26%

Málaga II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

80%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

48%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

22%

Málaga II 1+ goals

66%

Málaga II 2+ goals

29%

Málaga II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

66%

Málaga II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.61

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Jaén scores more

50%

level

25%

Málaga II scores more

26%

Real Jaén at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff