Málaga II 1–0 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Málaga II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Jaén

3/9/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Málaga II51%

×Draw26%

Real Jaén23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Málaga IIExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.92

Málaga II

1.53

Real Jaén

0.92

Málaga II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 93 away

2.03

creates per match

1.15

0.69

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Málaga II

2.03

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Málaga II

0.69

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Real Jaén →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw

77%

Málaga II or Real Jaén

74%

Draw or Real Jaén

49%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+

27%

Real Jaén wins by 2+

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals

78%

Málaga II 2+ goals

45%

Málaga II 3+ goals

20%

Real Jaén 1+ goals

60%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

23%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)

69%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.53

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Málaga II scores more

51%

level

26%

Real Jaén scores more

23%

Málaga II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff