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Real Jaén vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Real Jaén
Real Jaén
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
6/22/2025Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play Offs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Jaén49%
×Draw30%
Atlético Central21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Jaén
1.25
Atlético Central
0.71

Real Jaén creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Real Jaén
1.50
Atlético Central
0.67

allows per match

Real Jaén
0.75
Atlético Central
1.00

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw
79%
Real Jaén or Atlético Central
70%
Draw or Atlético Central
51%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+
23%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals
71%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
36%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
51%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
16%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)
70%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 1.50 + Atlético Central defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atlético Central attack 0.67 + Real Jaén defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Jaén scores more
49%
level
30%
Atlético Central scores more
21%

Real Jaén at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Real Jaén 2–1 Atlético Central

Real Jaén beat Atlético Central 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 22, 2025.