Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Jaén vs Antequera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Real Jaén
Real Jaén
CANC
00:00
Antequera
Antequera
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 35Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Jaén48%
×Draw25%
Antequera27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Jaén
1.56
Antequera
1.11

Real Jaén creates 41% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 27 away

creates per match

Real Jaén
2.12
Antequera
1.41

allows per match

Real Jaén
0.82
Antequera
1.00

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par
Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Antequera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw
73%
Real Jaén or Antequera
75%
Draw or Antequera
52%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+
24%
Antequera wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals
79%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
46%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
21%
Antequera 1+ goals
67%
Antequera 2+ goals
30%
Antequera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)
64%
Antequera (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Antequera defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Antequera attack 1.41 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Jaén scores more
48%
level
25%
Antequera scores more
27%

Real Jaén at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Jaén host Antequera

April 26, 2020: Real Jaén take on Antequera in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Jaén host Antequera at Nuevo Estadio La Victoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.